Dr. Phattharaphon Silarak
Keywords: trade policy, international business, soybean futures market, Sino–US trade conflict, Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test, Co-integration test, Chow breakpoint test ,


International business is being affected by trade policy, which is becoming more and
more evident. In order to analyse the effects of Sino-US trade conflict, this research
examines the Chinese soybean futures market. The primary goal of this research is to
examine the correlation between Chinese and American soybean futures markets. Data is
first gathered and normalized for pre-processing. In this study, the “Augmented DickeyFuller (ADF)” test, the Co-integration test, and the Chow breakpoint test are used for
empirical analysis. The findings showed a strong impact of American soybean futures
markets on Chinese pricing. The two variables have a long-term relation of connection. The
findings demonstrate how the Chinese soybean futures market changed as a result of the
Sino-US trade war, becoming more volatile and having an asymmetrical impact. Chinese
soybean meal, Chinese soybean oil, and Chinese soybeans all have favourable correlations
with Chinese soybean futures. However, since the start of the Sino-US trade war, there is
less of a link between Chinese soybean meal futures and American soybean meal futures,
as well as between Chinese soybean oil futures and American soybean oil futures.This study
also made some recommendations on how to encourage the growth of the soybean futures
market in China.